River Notes Archive

River Notes for Monday, October 30, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

The medium range forecast models did a pretty good job of forecasting our recent wet weather. Since Saturday afternoon remote sensors in the Kern River basin reported the following (approximate) precipitation amounts. Upper Tyndall Creek: 1.0, Crabtree Meadow: 0.4, Pascoes: 1.0, Johnsondale: 0.75, and Kernville: 0.1. (Amounts are in inches of rain, or Snow Water Equivalent.)

With the wet weather the Upper Kern has come up a bit. This morning at 9:00, the gage at Riverside Park recorded a flow of 338 cfs, and rumor has it that over the weekend Brush Creek was runnable for a time.

The short term outlook is for cool, blustery weather. The next shortwave is forecast to be an "inside slider," digging into Nevada, then eventually merging with the trough now over California as it moves east. The system then moves back to the west and cuts off into yet another upper low over Southern California. Computer models forecast this to happen in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. If the system evolves as currently forecast, it could produce some precipitation on the east side of the Sierra, the eastern deserts, or southeastern California, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the location of the low and the amount of moisture associated with the system. The CDC "Week 2" forecasts for the period November 7 to 13 hint at continued troughiness in the southwest with a somewhat increased chance of precipitation in Southern California.

The RiverPhoto is Peter Wiechers running Black Bottom Falls at 212 cfs in a Pyranha Inazone 230.

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Want to sell your old boat to make room for a new one? Contact the store at 1-760-376-3745 for information.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Tuesday, October 24, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

If the 00Z 10/24/00 run of the MRF verifies, California-- including Southern California-- can look forward to periods of cool wet weather over the next several days This is a farily dramatic change from earlier runs, but is supported in the short term by the 12Z ETA, 06Z AVN, 00Z UKMET and in the longer term by the Navy NGP and Canadian GEM model. Today's U.S. and Canadian ensembles reflect a more pessimistic view with the highest probabilities of precipitation in Central and Northern California and relatively low precipitation amounts.

Computer models suggest a cut-off low will form just off the coast of Central/Northern California Wednesday and then slowly wander down the coast and through Southern California Thursday and Friday. The low is then kicked out by another shortwave trough that is forecast to move through the state over the weekend.

The RiverPhoto is Peter Wiechers running Black Bottom Falls at 212 cfs in a Pyranha Inazone 230.

Halloween Sale on New Boats!

Whitewater Boats Prozone 235 $1075-sale $975... Method & Method Air $999-sale $899... Medieval $959-sale $799... Amp $1029-sale $929... Outlaw $959-sale $899... Vengence $959-sale $759... XXX $995-sale $879... Infared $929-sale $659... RPM $979-sale $929... Y $939-sale $749... Gliss/Bliss $895-sale $749... Forplay $995-sale $899... UltraClean $989-sale $749.

Recreational Boats Delta Expedition $609-sale $559... Cypress $679-sale $629... Swifty $369-sale $329... Pamlico $699-sale $649... Santa Cruze $800-sale $649...

Want to sell your old boat to make room for a new one? Contact the store at 1-760-376-3745 for information.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Friday, October 20, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

An energetic "V" shaped trough is forecast to move into Northern and Central California today, plunge southward into Southern California tonight and tomorrow, and then close off into an upper low somewhere over southern California, northern Mexico or western Arizona later in the day on Saturday. Currently the system is resulting in generally moderate rain in far northern California, Oregon and Washington with isolated embedded thunderstorms and heavier rain in some areas.

The main effect in Central and Southern California is expected to be cooler temperatures and the possibility of strong winds. At the moment computer models and forecasters are not especially bullish on the prospects for significant rain in the southern half of the state, but the system is continuing to evolve and there appears to be at least a chance of some scattered showers or light rain in the Kern River basin, with a chance of snow at higher elevations. We'll see! Models show another shortwave moving through the area mid week, but vary widely on their predictions.

Today's RiverPhoto is Peter Wiechers running Black Bottom Falls at 212 cfs in a Pyranha Inazone 230.

Halloween Sale on New Boats!

Whitewater Boats Prozone 235 $1075-sale $975... Method & Method Air $999-sale $899... Medieval $959-sale $799... Amp $1029-sale $929... Outlaw $959-sale $899... Vengence $959-sale $759... XXX $995-sale $879... Infared $929-sale $659... RPM $979-sale $929... Y $939-sale $749... Gliss/Bliss $895-sale $749... Forplay $995-sale $899... UltraClean $989-sale $749.

Recreational Boats Delta Expedition $609-sale $559... Cypress $679-sale $629... Swifty $369-sale $329... Pamlico $699-sale $649... Santa Cruze $800-sale $649...

Want to sell your old boat to make room for a new one? Contact the store at 1-760-376-3745 for information.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Monday, October 16, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

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Whitewater Boats Prozone 235 $1075-sale $975... Method & Method Air $999-sale $899... Medieval $959-sale $799... Amp $1029-sale $929... Outlaw $959-sale $899... Vengence $959-sale $759... XXX $995-sale $879... Infared $929-sale $659... RPM $979-sale $929... Y $939-sale $749... Gliss/Bliss $895-sale $749... Forplay $995-sale $899... UltraClean $989-sale $749.

Recreational Boats Delta Expedition $609-sale $559... Cypress $679-sale $629... Swifty $369-sale $329... Pamlico $699-sale $649... Santa Cruze $800-sale $649...

Beware! these prices will haunt you if you don't act soon! (Want to sell your old boat to make room for a new one? Contact the store at 1-760-376-3745.)

NOAA/CPC has released their Winter Outlook for 2000-2001. Potential Winter Weather Impacts compared to 1998-2000 include slightly cooler weather over much of the West, and "enhanced possibilities" for heavy rain events from Northern California to Southern Alaska.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Thursday, October 12, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

NOAA/CPC has released their Winter Outlook for 2000-2001. Potential Winter Weather Impacts compared to 1998-2000 include slightly cooler weather over much of the West, and "enhanced possibilities" for heavy rain events from Northern California to Southern Alaska.

The Climate Prediction Center has also released the latest Long Range Precipitation Forecast, which continues to show much of the West will be near climatological norms this Winter. The current Monthly/Seasonal Forecast depicts above average temperatures and below average precipitation for southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for November.

The outlook for the Kern River basin snowpack is difficult to assess. Historically the basin has had both above average and below average snowpacks when neutral ENSO conditions have existed. The weather record suggests that the Sierra receives a large percentage of its snowpack from a relatively small number (5-6) of storms, so a shift in track of one or two storms can have a dramatic effect on the snowpack. In the "pineapple express" scenario described in the Winter Outlook, a southward shift in the storm track could produce several feet of snow in the Central or Southern Sierra. Systems with a low latitude moisture connection can also produce rain at high elevations, with resultant erosion of the snowpack and the potential for flooding. What kind of Winter will we actually have? We'll see!

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Wednesday, October 11, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

A broad upper level trough and low has brought the first significant precipitation of the rainy season to the region. Multiple disturbances rotating around the low and favorable orographics in some areas have resulted in variable amounts of rain and snow. According to remote sensors Kernville has received about 0.3 inch of rain, and Johnsondale about 1.3 inches. At the higher elevations of the Kern River basin Upper Tyndell Creek recorded about 0.8 inch water equivalent, and Pascoes about 1.7 inch water equivalent.

Satellite and model data suggest another disturbance will rotate around the low and through the Sierra later today, with improving weather to follow. At the moment the weekend looks to be precipitation free.

Following two years of La Nina influenced Winters, the ENSO state is currently near neutral. The September Long Range Precipitation Forecast, from the Climate Prediction Center predicts that precipitation in much of the West will be near climatological norms this Winter. The Winter 2000-2001 outlook, ENSO outlook, and additional climatological forecasts and data are scheduled for release over the next few days.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Monday, October 9, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

An approaching upper level trough should bring the first significant snow of Water Year 2001 to the Sierra, and the Kern River basin.

There is some disparity among the models, and forecasters, about how much snow will fall. HPC currently predicts the bulk of the precipitation will be in the northern two-thirds of the Sierra, with snow beginning at the higher elevations of the Central Sierra today, and the Southern Sierra this afternoon or evening. Current forecasts show total QPFs through Friday morning of more than 2 inches in the Lake Tahoe area, but perhaps only 0.5 to 0.75 inch in the Kern basin. (The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is in liquid water equivalent. A rough approximation of snowfall is 10 times the QPF; if it is cold enough to snow.)

There are some factors that could result in more snow in the Southern Sierra than currently forecast. Two vorticity centers, the jet stream, and orographics may enhance snowfall amounts. Models indicate precipitable water values of about 0.5 inch to about 0.8 inch over the Central and Southern Sierra. GOES sounder data suggests actual values may be more like 0.8 inch to 1.0 inch. We'll see!

Following two years of La Nina influenced Winters, the ENSO state is currently near neutral. The September Long Range Precipitation Forecast, from the Climate Prediction Center predicts that precipitation in much of the West will be near climatological norms this Winter. The Winter 2000-2001 outlook, ENSO outlook, and additional climatological forecasts and data are scheduled for release over the next couple of weeks.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Tuesday, October 3, 2000

Important information about River Notes.

Following two years of La Nina influenced Winters, the ENSO state is currently near neutral. The September Long Range Precipitation Forecast, from the Climate Prediction Center predicts that precipitation in much of the West will be near climatological norms this Winter. The Winter 2000-2001 outlook, ENSO outlook, and additional climatological forecasts and data are scheduled for release over the next couple of weeks.

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data. Click on "Current" to get the latest info. (SCE reports that flow phone data is updated twice daily. For current information call 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821.)

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

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