River Notes Archive

River Notes for Thursday, September 30, 2004

Important information about River Notes.

The Sierra Cup Slalom Series started with the T.J. Slalom at the Kern River Festival in April, and ended last week with seventh race in the series, the Mokelumne River Races. More than 150 paddlers competed in at least one race. Keith Kishiyama placed first in Men’s Masters  in six of seven Sierra Cup races, finishing well ahead of second place finisher Gary Valle, also in the Men’s Masters class. Bill Triffet’s win in the Men's K-1 Novice at the Mokelumne pushed him to third place in the Series, just ahead of Charlie Albright. For all the results, see the Sierra Cup Final Standings (Adobe PDF).

Slalom is growing in popularity in California. The races in the Sierra Cup Series are fun, low-key events, generally on class II whitewater. The courses are usually set so that most of the racers, even novice racers, can make the gates. And, you can practice the course the day before the race. Plastic boats are common. Bill Triffet placed third in this year's Sierra Cup paddling a Wave Sport Z. Paul Armes paddled a Jackson Kayak Fun and a Wave Sport Diesel at the Miracle Slalom and had times comparable to experts in slalom boats. Give it a try -- you don't have to be an expert to have fun!

According to Dr. Klaus Wolter in the September 3, 2004 update of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) page, the latest increase of the MEI Index from .454 to .602 "virtually guarantees" weak to moderate El Niño conditions this Fall and Winter. At this point the MEI behavior resembles that recorded during 1979, which evolved to a moderate El Niño event during the Winter of 1979-80.

The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued September 9, reports that the operational definition an El Niño was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, and that it "seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005."

If mild to moderate El Niño conditions persist this Winter, what might be the impact on the Southern Sierra? Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) data analysis tools show the expected positive correlation of seasonally averaged November to April Southern California precipitation to Niño 3.4 (East Central Tropical Pacific) SST. Generally, the larger the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, the more precipitation in Southern California.

However, there is growing evidence that other ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), can lessen or amplify ENSO impacts. The PDO characterizes the state of Pacific SSTs north of the tropics. Results vary from region to region, but generally ENSO impacts are the most defined when ENSO and the PDO are in phase. The warm phase of the PDO is characterized by cooler than normal SSTs in the central Pacific, east of Japan; and warmer than normal SSTs off the west coast of North America, and in the tropical Pacific. The PDO index has been positive since August of 2002, with higher index values the Winter of 2002-2003, than in the Winter of 2003-2004. Current SST animations suggest the PDO could be moderately to strongly positive this Winter. CDC data analysis tools show a weak positive correlation of seasonally averaged November to April Southern California precipitation to the PDO index.

The long term Precipitation Outlooks, issued by the CPC September 16, 2004, start to show an El Niño like pattern starting with the Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Outlook. The CPC's discussion of these forecasts takes a wait and see attitude, and stresses that El Niño impacts will "depend critically on the evolution of SSTs in the eastern Pacific and the coupling between the atmosphere and SST anomalies."

Should the pattern continue to evolve like the El Niño of 1979-80, and behave in a similar manner, the Southern Sierra could experience a very wet Winter. That Winter Los Angeles received over 26" of rain, and storage in Lake Isabella increased from about 209,000 acre-feet in December, to 581,000 acre-feet in June. This weekend an unseasonably strong upper trough may result in some snow at higher elevations. We'll see what this Winter brings!

For those of you who missed out on our Sizzlin' Summer Sale, we still have some boats left. Our boat inventory varies daily. Please call 1-800-376-7303 if you are interested in a specific boat and don't see it on our New Boat Barn or Used Boat Barn. Thanks for a great season!

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data, based on reports from the Corps of Engineers (COE) and Southern California Edison (SCE). Click on "Current" to get the latest COE info. For SCE flow information, call the flow phone at 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821. According to SCE, the flow phone values reported for Above & Below Fairview, and Below Democrat Dam are updated every 5-10 seconds. All other flow phone data is manually updated twice a day (7am & 2pm) when an operator is on duty.

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Thursday, September 16, 2004

Important information about River Notes.

According to Dr. Klaus Wolter in the September 3, 2004 update of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) page, the latest increase of the MEI Index from .454 to .602 "virtually guarantees" weak to moderate El Niño conditions this Fall and Winter. At this point the MEI behavior resembles that recorded during 1979, which evolved to a moderate El Niño event during the Winter of 1979-80.

The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued September 9, reports that the operational definition an El Niño was satisfied for the period June-August 2004, and that it "seems most likely that SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region will remain positive, at or above +0.5°C, through early 2005."

If mild to moderate El Niño conditions persist this Winter, what might be the impact on the Southern Sierra? Climate Diagnostics Center (CDC) data analysis tools show the expected positive correlation of seasonally averaged November to April Southern California precipitation to Niño 3.4 (East Central Tropical Pacific) SST. Generally, the larger the SST anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region, the more precipitation in Southern California.

However, there is growing evidence that other ocean-atmosphere interactions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), can lessen or amplify ENSO impacts. The PDO characterizes the state of Pacific SSTs north of the tropics. Results vary from region to region, but generally ENSO impacts are the most defined when ENSO and the PDO are in phase. The warm phase of the PDO is characterized by cooler than normal SSTs in the central Pacific, east of Japan; and warmer than normal SSTs off the west coast of North America, and in the tropical Pacific. The PDO index has been positive since August of 2002, with higher index values the Winter of 2002-2003, than in the Winter of 2003-2004. Current SST animations suggest the PDO could be moderately to strongly positive this Winter. CDC data analysis tools show a weak positive correlation of seasonally averaged November to April Southern California precipitation to the PDO index.

The long term Precipitation Outlooks, issued by the CPC September 16, 2004, start to show an El Niño like pattern starting with the Dec-Jan-Feb Precipitation Outlook. The CPC's discussion of these forecasts takes a wait and see attitude, and stresses that El Niño impacts will "depend critically on the evolution of SSTs in the eastern Pacific and the coupling between the atmosphere and SST anomalies."

Should the pattern continue to evolve like the El Niño of 1979-80, and behave in a similar manner, the Southern Sierra could experience a very wet Winter. That Winter Los Angeles received over 26" of rain, and storage in Lake Isabella increased from about 209,000 acre-feet in December, to 581,000 acre-feet in June. This weekend an unseasonably strong upper trough may result in some snow at higher elevations. We'll see what this Winter brings!

For those of you who missed out on our Sizzlin' Summer Sale, we still have some boats left. Our boat inventory varies daily. Please call 1-800-376-7303 if you are interested in a specific boat and don't see it on our New Boat Barn or Used Boat Barn. Thanks for a great season!

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data, based on reports from the Corps of Engineers (COE) and Southern California Edison (SCE). Click on "Current" to get the latest COE info. For SCE flow information, call the flow phone at 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821. According to SCE, the flow phone values reported for Above & Below Fairview, and Below Democrat Dam are updated every 5-10 seconds. All other flow phone data is manually updated twice a day (7am & 2pm) when an operator is on duty.

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

River Notes for Tuesday, September 7, 2004

Important information about River Notes.

Eric and Rebecca Giddens, along with Kern Valley River Council, are offering a paddling clinic to be held at the Miracle Hot Springs Slalom site located on the Lower Kern River on Saturday-Sunday, September 25-26, 2004. This slalom clinic is for intermediate and advanced boaters. Rebecca Giddens, silver-medalist at the 2004 Olympics, is currently one of the top ranked women in the world, the 2002 World Champion, a member of the 2000 Olympic team, and a four-time National Champion. Eric Giddens was a member of the 1996 Olympic Team, 2000 and 2004 Olympic Coach and an internationally-ranked member of the U.S. National Slalom Team for many years  Space is limited. Additional information and an application form can be downloaded here. (Adobe PDF). (9/9/2004 - Clinic has filled. In the event of cancellations, additional participants will be taken from a waiting list.)

According to Dr. Klaus Wolter in the September 3, 2004 update of his Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) page, the latest increase of the MEI Index "virtually guarantees" weak to moderate El Niño conditions this Fall and Winter. At this point the MEI behavior resembles that recorded during 1979, which evolved to a moderate El Niño event during the Winter of 1979-80. The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued August 5, also says that El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the next 3 months.

For those of you who missed out on our Sizzlin' Summer Sale, we still have some boats left. Our boat inventory varies daily. Please call 1-800-376-7303 if you are interested in a specific boat and don't see it on our New Boat Barn or Used Boat Barn. Thanks for a great season!

Here is a snapshot of today's flow and reservoir data, based on reports from the Corps of Engineers (COE) and Southern California Edison (SCE). Click on "Current" to get the latest COE info. For SCE flow information, call the flow phone at 877-537-6356 or 760-376-8821. According to SCE, the flow phone values reported for Above & Below Fairview, and Below Democrat Dam are updated every 5-10 seconds. All other flow phone data is manually updated twice a day (7am & 2pm) when an operator is on duty.

More information concerning flow and weather can be found on our LINKS page.

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